Showing posts with label US govt shutdown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US govt shutdown. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

US government shutdown: How it will affect India

The White House ordered government agencies to begin shutting down after the Democratic-led Senate and Republican-controlled House refused to back down in a clash over scaling back President Barack Obama's landmark health care law as the price for essential federal funding.

The shutdown threatens to slow growth and spook investors worldwide. While, the shutdown will impact a lot of US citizens, economic affairs secretary Arvind Mayaram said that as of now, a shutdown of the US government is not likely to have a major impact on the Indian economy. Here's how the shutdown will affect Indians.


1) New visa issuance: Indian IT companies earn a big chunk of their revenues from the US so a prolonged shutdown may affect their business. TV Mohandas Pai of Manipal Global Education told NDTV that if the shutdown in the US goes beyond 15 days, it will impact issue of new visa. However, since the visas are user-funded, they may continue for now. Fresh year for US visas start on October 1, Mr Pai said, so a delay of 10-15 days is ok.

2) Rupee may come under pressure: The Indian rupee has recovered sharply in September, but it could come under pressure according to eminent economist Arvind Virmani. "While this uncertainty lasts in the US, there will be hesitation in giving new orders in investment and exports. This will weaken our exchange rate," Dr Virmani said.

3) Sensex could be volatile: Financial markets could become skittish, Dr Virmani said. Central banks of all countries are aware of it and they will try to not have disruptions including our central bank of India, Dr Virmani added.

4) Global markets: If there is volatility in global markets, it will also affect Indian stocks. The Dow Jones Average in the US fell for the seventh day in eight sessions overnight.

5) Global economy: Dr Virmani said it's unfortunate that every time global economy looks like it will recover, we have this unfortunate thing in the US. It's very sad for everybody, he added.

US government shuts down, Obama blames Republicans

WASHINGTON: For the first time in nearly two decades, the US government staggered into a partial shutdown on Monday at midnight after congressional Republicans stubbornly demanded changes in the nation's healthcare law as the price for essential federal funding and President Barack Obama and Democrats adamantly refused.

As Congress gridlocked, Obama said a "shutdown will have a very real economic impact on real people, right away", with hundreds of thousands of federal workers furloughed and veterans' centres, national parks, most of the space agency and other government operations shuttered.

He laid the blame at the feet of House Republicans, whom he accused of seeking to tie government funding to ideological demands, "all to save face after making some impossible promises to the extreme right wing of their party".

House Speaker John Boehner responded a short while later on the House floor. "The American people don't want a shutdown and neither do I," he said. Yet, he added, the new healthcare law "is having a devastating impact. ... Something has to be done."

There are few issues Republicans feel as passionately about as the healthcare reform, which they have dubbed "Obamacare". They see the plan — intended to provide coverage for the millions of Americans now uninsured — as wasteful and restricting freedom by requiring most Americans to have health insurance.

The US stock market dropped on fears that political gridlock between the White House and a Republican Party influenced by hardcore conservative tea party lawmakers would prevail, though analysts suggested significant damage to the national economy was unlikely unless a shutdown lasted more than a few days.

A few minutes before midnight, White House budget director Sylvia Burwell issued a directive to federal agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown". While an estimated 800,000 federal workers faced furloughs, some critical parts of the government — from the military to air traffic controllers — would remain open.

Still, a shutdown would inconvenience millions of people who rely on federal services or are drawn to the nation's parks and other attractions.

Many low-to-moderate-income borrowers and first-time homebuyers seeking government-backed mortgages could face delays, and Obama said veterans' centres would be closed.

Some critical services such as patrolling the borders and inspecting meat would continue. Social security benefits would be sent, and the government healthcare programmes for the elderly and poor would continue to pay doctors and hospitals.

US troops were shielded from any damage to their wallets when Obama signed legislation assuring the military would be paid in the in the event of a shutdown.

The state department would continue processing foreign applications for visas, and embassies and consulates overseas would continue to provide services to American citizens.

Any interruption in federal funding would send divided government into territory unexplored in nearly two decades. Then, Republicans suffered grievous political damage and President Bill Clinton benefited from twin shutdowns in 1995 and 1996. Now, some Republicans said they feared a similar outcome.

If nothing else, some Republicans also conceded it was impossible to use funding legislation to squeeze concessions from the White House on health care. "We can't win," said Senator John McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential candidate.

On a long day and night in the Capitol, the Senate torpedoed one Republican attempt to tie government financing to changes in the health care law. House Republicans countered with a second despite unmistakable signs their unity was fraying — and Senate Democrats promptly rejected it, as well.

Defiant still, House Republicans decided to re-pass their earlier measure and simultaneously request negotiations with the Senate on a compromise. Some aides conceded the move was largely designed to make sure that the formal paperwork was on the Senate's doorstep as the day ended.

Whatever its intent, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid rejected it. "That closes government. They want to close government," he said of House Republicans.

As lawmakers squabbled, Obama spoke bluntly about House Republicans. "You don't get to extract a ransom for doing your job, for doing what you're supposed to be doing anyway, or just because there's a law there that you don't like," he said. Speaking of the health care law that undergoes a major expansion on Tuesday, he said emphatically, "That funding is already in place. You can't shut it down."

There were some signs of fraying within Republican ranks. For the first time since the showdown began more than a week ago, there was public dissent from the Republican strategy that has been carried out at the insistence of tea party-supported Republican House members working in tandem with Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas.

Republican Representative Charles Dent said he was willing to vote for stand-alone legislation that would keep the government running and contained no healthcare-related provisions. "I would be supportive of it, and I believe the votes are there in the House to pass it at that point," the fifth-term congressman said.

Other Republicans sought to blame Democrats for any shutdown, but Dent conceded that Republicans would bear the blame, whether or not they deserved it.

Hours before the midnight deadline, the Senate voted 54-46 to reject a proposal by House Republicans for a temporary funding bill that would have kept the government open but would have delayed implementation of the health care law for a year and permanently repeal a tax on medical devices that helps finance it.

House Republicans countered by scaling back their demands and seeking different concessions in exchange for allowing the government to remain open. They called for a one-year delay in a requirement in the healthcare law for individuals to purchase coverage or face financial penalties.

The same measure also would require members of Congress and their aides as well as the president, vice president and the administration's political appointees to bear the full cost of their own health care coverage by barring the government from making the customary employer contribution.

The vote was 228-201, with a dozen Republicans opposed and nine Democrats in favour.

Unimpressed, Senate Democrats rejected the House measure on another 54-46 party line vote about an hour later.

Obama followed up his public remarks with phone calls to Boehner and the three other top leaders of Congress, telling Republicans he would continue to oppose attempts to delay or cut federal financing of the health care law.

The prospect of a shutdown led US stocks to sink as Wall Street worried the budget fight could lead to something much worse for the economy — a failure to raise the nation's borrowing limit.

Republicans are likely to take up the healthcare fight again when Congress must pass a measure to increase the borrowing cap, which is expected to hit its $16.7 trillion ceiling in mid-October.

Obama has vowed not to negotiate over the debt ceiling, noting that a default would be worse for the economy than a partial government shutdown.

The US risks a market-rattling, first-ever default on its obligations if Congress fails to raise that limit.

Both a shutdown and a default would be politically risky ahead of next year's congressional elections.

Some Republican leaders fear the public will blame their party for the shutdown. But individual House members may face a greater risk by embracing a compromise. Many represent heavily partisan congressional districts, and voters in Republican primaries have ousted lawmakers they see as too moderate.

Despite the government shutdown, a crucial part of the health care plan takes effect: enrolment in new healthcare exchanges that will enable millions of uninsured Americans to purchase plans from private insurers, many of whom are eligible for federal subsidies to reduce premiums. That's because most of the program is paid from funds not subject to congressional appropriations.

US shutdown will not hit visa sections

A threatened partial shutdown of the US government will not hit foreign nationals lining up for visas to visit the United States, a US official said on Monday.

"Activities carried out by the Bureau of Consular Affairs will continue domestically and abroad, so that means they will continue visa issuance as well as our passport operations," State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said.

US lawmakers have until midnight to prevent the first US government shutdown in 17 years by agreeing on budget legislation, but a deal appeared remote Monday.

Psaki also predicted there would be little immediate effect on the State Department's operations if the shutdown goes into force, and most staff would also not be given mandatory furloughs.

"If a government shuts down, initially, Department of State and USAID activities can be sustained on a limited basis for a short period of time," she told reporters.

She would not detail how long she was talking about, whether days or weeks, saying it was something "our budget wonks are still punching through."

And Psaki added that a trip by US secretary of state John Kerry to Tokyo and Indonesia would go ahead as planned later this week.

"The State Department and USAID are national security agencies and will take steps to continue working to advance the national interest, even in the event of a shutdown and reduced staff," Psaki said.

Part of the reason why the department would be able to keep going was that its funding for the fiscal year 2013, which began on October 1, 2012, was only received in March.

So "we will have residual funds available beyond today as a result," Psaki said.

Most of its aid and assistance programs were also funded over several years, while some like visa services were financed through the fees charged, she said.

"Because we're able to sustain our operations on a limited basis, the vast majority of normal functions and operations will continue," Psaki stressed.

10 things to know about the US government shutdown

Global markets were choppy on Tuesday as hopes of a last minute resolution on the US government shutdown died and the White House ordered government agencies to begin shutting down. The shutdown could slow growth and spook investors worldwide. Asian stocks pared gains and India's benchmark Sensex shed around 100 points after a positive start. Overnight, the Dow Jones Average in the US closed down 129 points, its seventh loss in eight sessions.

 Here's your 10-point cheat-sheet on the global development:-
  1. Democrats, Republicans in showdown over shutdown: The White House ordered government agencies to begin shutting down after the Democratic-led Senate and Republican-controlled House refused to back down in a clash over scaling back President Barack Obama's landmark health care law as the price for essential federal funding.
  2. What is the US government shutdown? It is a political situation in which the government stops providing for all but "essential" services such as police, fire fighting, etc. So unless Congress raises the federal borrowing cap (the legal limit on how much debt the US government can pile up), some of the government would shut down on October 1 as it will run out of money to pay its bills.
  3. Why will the government stop funding services? The US budget year ends on September 30. The House of Representatives and Senate are considering bills to fund the government past the deadline. But Republicans want to cut off funding for President Barack Obama's health care law as a condition of passing the spending measure. The Senate and the White House are unwilling to agree. Unless one side essentially blinks, a partial shutdown of the government will occur.
  4. Has it happened before? The US federal government has shut down on 17 occasions since 1976.
  5. How will it affect US citizens? About one-third of the government will shut down. About 800,000 of about 2.1 million federal employees will be sent home without pay. National parks will close. The Environmental Protection Agency, NASA and other agencies will close most operations. The military and other agencies involving safety and security would continue to function.
  6. What would be the effect on the economy? A three-week shutdown would slow the economy's annual growth rate in the October-December quarter by up to 0.9 percentage point, Goldman Sachs estimates. If so, the growth rate next quarter would be a scant 1.6 per cent, compared with the 2.5 per cent that many economists now forecast.
  7. What if Congress can't agree to raise the cap in time? It could be disastrous. The government might be forced to immediately slash spending by 32 per cent, the Bipartisan Policy Center estimates. The government could miss interest payments on Treasurys, triggering a first-ever default by the U.S. government. U.S. Treasurys are held by banks, governments and individuals worldwide. Ultimately, a prolonged default could lead to a global financial crisis.
  8. Will the economy escape harm if both deadlines are met? Probably. The last major fight over the borrowing cap, in the summer of 2011, wasn't resolved until hours before the deadline. Even though the deadline was met, Standard & Poor's issued the first-ever downgrade of long-term U.S. credit. That, in turn, led to a 635-point plunge in the Dow Jones industrial average the next day. The International Monetary Fund estimated last month that U.S. budget disputes, like the 2011 showdown, can slow annual growth by up to 0.5 percentage points in other parts of the world.
  9. What about financial markets? The price declines in stock markets have been modest so far as investors feel they have seen this movie before and know how it ends: with another last-minute deal.
  10. High volatility and weak dollar: Andrew Freris of BNP Paribas Wealth Management told NDTV that a possible shutdown will lead to sharp volatility in stock markets and will lead to a weakening of the US dollar, though temporarily.